Late last week, CNN released a poll showing President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump by 12 points in New Hampshire, 52%-40%. On Sunday, an ABC/Washington Post national poll found Trump leading Biden by 10 points, 52%-42%.
How is it possible for both of these things to be true?
Short answer: It is not.
While we don’t know how the 2024 election will turn out, we do know that Biden won’t win New Hampshire by 12 points, or that Donald Trump will win the popular vote by 10 points.
Since 2016, control of the House, Senate and White House has come down to very small margins across a handful of states and districts. No one is winning competitive states or the popular vote by a blowout.
The last six presidential elections have been decided by an average of three points, and, since 1996 (other than 2008), none have been decided by as much as five points.
Since 2016, no presidential candidate has carried key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina or Michigan by
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