It is certainly possible that Democrats keep their House losses under six and keep their majority, and it is possible that they break even in the Senate and maintain control thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris, but I wouldn’t bet your home or car on such an outcome.
One thing that is clear is that voter turnout is going to be very high, perhaps with the exception of Nevada. According to the University of Florida’s Michael McDonald, the guru of early-voting statistics, as of Monday night over 43 million people have already voted—almost 20 million casting their ballots early in person, and another 23 million by mail.
Looking at the work of election handicappers, certain patterns emerge. By the final count of David Wasserman, the senior House editor for The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, 212 House seats are Lean, Likely, or Solid Republican, six seats short of the barest majority. Another 187 seats are Lean, Likely, or Solid Democrat. That leaves 36 seats in the Toss Up column. Races in the final Toss Up
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