On the surface, the 2024 election feels very familiar and even kinda… boring.

The leading Republican and Democratic candidates for president are way ahead of their primary rivals. And if Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump face off against each other again, polls suggest that the 2024 rematch won’t look much different from 2020 — very close and very competitive.

Yet our baseline assumptions of 2024 are built on a very thin sheet of ice that could be breached in any number of different ways. Underneath the stability and status quo is incredible volatility.

First, the most obvious and oft-discussed: Trump and Biden are old. One serious health crisis can put someone who is over the age of 75 in the hospital or take them out of commission for days or weeks.

The Biden team is doing what they can to mitigate the risk, including using the shorter set of stairs into Air Force One, while also using every opportunity they can to show the president to be vigorous and healthy with photo ops of bike riding

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