Don't be surprised by the spring in the step of Republican senators these days. Their numbers appear almost certain to grow after Election Day. A gain of at least three seats seems very likely. Four seats appears probable, and five seats seems quite possible. A five-seat pickup would give Republicans 60 senators, the largest number for the GOP since 1909, and enough to halt Democratic filibusters.
But it's a somewhat different story in the House. Just a week or two ago, it looked as if Republicans would pick up 10 to 20 House seats; now, a five-to-10-seat gain seems more realistic. Of course, GOP leaders would be grateful for even a small net gain — but it could be just a bit disappointing, like the feeling on your birthday when you had been hoping for a bike and got new clothes instead.
Why the change in expectations? It all has to do with the different ways the predictions of House and Senate gains were calculated. In the Senate contests, the surge in GOP hopes reflects a race-by-race analysis--an assessment that
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.