This has been an incredibly volatile 15 years of politics, but you wouldn’t know that by looking at the results of the Electoral College. As Ron Brownstein, one of the smartest analysts in the business, pointed out in a CNN column late last year, “80% of the states have voted the same way in at least the past four presidential elections — a level of consistency unmatched through the 20th century.” From 2008 until the 2020 election, only 10 states — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (plus two swing single-vote districts NE-02 and ME-02) — have voted for both Democratic and Republican nominees.
Adding another layer of consistency to 2024 is the fact that we are very likely to see a repeat race between Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump. While this doesn’t mean that a rematch ends in the exact same place it did in 2020, it does take some of the uncertainty out of the equation.
These two factors have helped produce a very narrow
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