At first blush, it’s hard to believe that Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business accounts will hurt him politically. After all, if the Access Hollywood tape, two House impeachments, and the findings of the January 6 Committee didn’t sink Trump’s political career, why would this?

Opinions of Trump are baked in at this point. If you already despise the man, this verdict was further proof of his lack of fitness for the job. If you support him, the trial was yet another example of “lawfare” perpetuated by a biased and liberal prosecutor.

The question going forward in this campaign isn’t whether this conviction will change opinions about Trump. The real question is the impact it has on two key groups of people: 1) those who already dislike Trump but aren’t motivated to show up for President Joe Biden and 2) those so-called ‘double haters’ who dislike both men.

At this point, we know that at least 20% of the overall electorate dislikes both of these candidates. One GOP pollster I spoke with the other week told me

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