After 2018 shattered midterm turnout records — a majority of eligible Americans cast ballots in a non-presidential year for the first time in over a century — most pundits are forecasting sky-high participation levels in November's presidential election. But would that benefit President Trump or Democrats? The answer might lie with the roughly 39 percent of eligible adults who sat out 2016. It's almost become an axiom that "when more people vote, Democrats win." According to the Census's Current Population Survey, turnout among voting-age citizens in Trump's 2016 win (61 percent) was lower than it was in 2012 (62 percent) and 2008 (64 percent). And in the "blue wave" of 2018, turnout was far higher (53 percent) than it was in 2014 (42 percent) or 2010 (46 percent). But a closer look at which types of voters showed up and stayed home in 2016 suggests that higher turnout overall could have vastly different impacts on the parties' fortunes in different regions of the country. To estimate the demographic breakdown of voters and non-voters in 2016, we merged statewide and national
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