Just because an event is big news does not mean that it will have a big impact. Former President Trump’s 49-page, 37-count indictment is obviously big news, but will it significantly change the contest for the GOP presidential nomination and affect the outcome at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee exactly 400 days from today? I think not.

Going at least as far back as the October 2016 release of the Access Hollywood tape of Trump’s crude remarks about women, Trump’s support among fellow Republicans has been impervious to negative stories that would have been fatal if written about any other political figure. If anything, adverse events have only galvanized his support. Prior to the indictment, three-quarters of Republicans viewed Trump favorably, and only a fifth unfavorably. Don’t assume those numbers will change. Just about any Republican who has stuck with him this far is unlikely to abandon him now.

In this era of partisan tribalism, each party has its own version of the us-against-them dynamic. For many Democrats it is self-righteousness, a feeling that they are both morally and

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