Given the strong political headwinds facing them, Democratic hopes for holding down their losses this fall rests partly on GOP primary voters nominating the more flawed GOP candidate in crowded primary contests. However, that didn’t pan out for Democrats on Tuesday. The more electable GOP candidate emerged victorious in states like California, New Jersey, Iowa, and New Mexico.

In Iowa, state Sen. Zach Nunn decisively won the nomination to face Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne (IA-03) in a district Donald Trump narrowly carried, prompting us to move the race from Toss Up to Lean Republican. In New Jersey, moderate state Sen. Tom Kean, Jr. fended off a crowded field to his right for the right to face Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski (NJ-07). And in California, GOP Reps. David Valadao (CA-22) and Young Kim (CA-40) appear on track to finish ahead of more MAGA-oriented challengers to win November runoff slots, though there are still thousands more ballots to count in the weeks ahead.

And, in New Mexico, Republicans got their top choice to face Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, as former Albuquerque

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