The most consequential result on Tuesday night took place in the south Texas 34th CD, where GOP respiratory care practitioner Mayra Flores defeated Democrat Dan Sanchez in a special election to replace Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela (Vela resigned in late March). As David Wasserman notes, Flores’ 51 percent showing in an 84 percent Latino seat is the latest sign of a GOP surge along the border. It also means that the Democrats’ House majority is down to 220 seats — the smallest majority in modern history.

But national Democrats, who eschewed spending here to shepherd its resources for the fall, argue Flores’s victory will be short-lived: in November, Flores will face Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez for a full term in the redrawn TX-34, which at Biden +16 is much more Democratic than the current TX-34 (Biden +4). Although Flores gains the advantage of incumbency, Wasserman writes, the fall race starts in Lean Democrat.

In South Carolina’s 7th CD, GOP Rep. Tom Rice’s resounding defeat to Trump-endorsed challenger Russell Fry confirms an impeachment vote isn’t forgivable to Republican primary voters

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