Tuesday's Ohio primaries showed the power of Donald Trump's endorsement in GOP primaries — and perhaps the impact of his criticism even when the former president doesn't choose a candidate. While the victory in the Senate primary by his pick, author J.D. Vance was a good start to a busy month of May primaries where he's made several endorsements, looking down the calendar shows other minefields ahead for Trump's other chosen candidates.

Democrats are hoping to make both the open Senate seat and the governor's race against incumbent Mike DeWine competitive, but this former swing state has been trending heavily in Republicans' direction, going for Trump by 8 points in 2020. The national headwinds make any race here even more difficult than under neutral circumstances.

We are keeping our ratings of Lean Republican in the Senate race and Likely Republican in the governor's race, where DeWine fended off two primary challengers but dipped under 50 percent nonetheless. We will be closely monitoring these two races over the coming weeks as the contours of the general election take

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