Appointed Republican U.S. Sen. Martha McSally got her first Democratic opponent when Mark Kelly, a retired U.S. Navy pilot who flew four missions on the Space Shuttle, announced his candidacy February 12. It’s a given that McSally will get a competitive race. After losing an open-seat U.S. Senate race to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema last November, GOP Gov. Doug Ducey appointed McSally to fill the seat of the late U.S. S John McCain until a special election is held in November of 2020. As Sinema was picking up an open Republican-held Senate seat, Democrats were also picking up the Secretary of State’s office, a U.S. House seat giving the party five of the state’s nine congressional districts, and narrowing the GOP majority in the state House. In 2016, President Trump only carried Arizona by four points, compared to nine points for GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney in 2012. Each of these data points, plus Trump’s war on undocumented immigrants, leave Democrats enthusiastic about their chances at defeating McSally a second time. McSally faced multiple struggles in the 2018 Senate race. The

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