As the overall environment continues to improve in the Republicans’ direction, the closer we get to Election Day, just 12 days out, we are shifting another race rating in the GOP’s direction. A month after we initially moved Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly into the Lean Democratic column, the race now goes back into Toss Up amid a spate of tightening private polling that has left Democrats worried about one of their strongest incumbents.

All of this has been despite the fact that many national Republicans had begun to write off this contest and GOP nominee Blake Masters’s lackluster campaign and candidate baggage. The writing was on the wall, or so it appeared after the McConnell-backed Senate Leadership Fund pulled their remaining ad buys from the state. A patchwork group of coalitions have made up some of the distance, including groups backed by the Heritage Foundation — and Masters’s mentor, billionaire Peter Theil, did finally pledge another $5 million to the race after having spent heavily to help Masters win the primary.

According to data from AdImpact, since Labor

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