On paper, Arizona should be one of Senate Republicans’ best targets to flip back to red and regain a majority. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has to turn around and run again for a full six-year term after winning his special election against appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally in 2020 by 2.4 points. It’s a state that President Biden carried by just three-tenths of a state, but Kelly still managed to run ahead of the Democratic nominee’s percentage by about two points.

But on paper and in practice are two different things. Despite the GOP's vastly more favorable political environment, this is one of the top races where many national Republican strategists fear that candidate quality could fritter away an opportunity.

In a five-candidate field, most polling and sources on the ground believe this primary is venture capitalist Blake Masters’s to lose. Masters secured the primary endorsement from former President Trump. He has harshly and repeatedly echoed Trump’s baseless claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen and that there was massive fraud in Arizona, even when a conservative

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