There will not be a three-way Senate race in Arizona this November: Ending over a year of speculation, independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced Tuesday afternoon she will not seek a second term in what would have been an uphill battle.

Her decision clears the way for a near-certain contest between Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake, the party’s 2022 nominee for governor. This is now an open seat Democrats must defend in a key presidential battleground, where recent polls have shown President Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump. Our rating for a one-on-one matchup remains as a Toss Up.

Although last fall it seemed like Sinema might try to wage a third-party bid, as the April 1 deadline to collect the nearly 144,000 signatures she’d need to qualify for the ballot inched closer — and as there was no indication she was circulating petitions — it was becoming clearer that this was probably shaping up to be a two-person race. Polling had consistently showed Sinema in third place with little path to victory.

Her departure is another

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