The field is set for a three-way Senate race in Arizona — we think.

On Tuesday, Republican Kari Lake officially launched her campaign, making her the clear frontrunner for the GOP nomination. She joins presumed Democratic nominee Rep. Reuben Gallego.

And we, as of now, are assuming that Democratic-turned-independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema will seek a second term. While Sinema hasn’t made an official announcement — and may not until sometime next spring — she has given strong signals that she will run for reelection, from putting out a polling memo outlining her path to re-election to hosting fundraisers to fill her campaign coffers. She ended the third quarter with $10.8 million in the bank; that was unchanged from the end of July, though.

I’ve been calling this my “asterisk” race. There is simply no other modern comparison of an incumbent leaving their party to run as an independent and facing a Democratic and Republican opponent in a re-election contest. It remains in our Toss Up column.

Lake, a former local news anchor turned vocal election denier who

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