Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden announced today that he will not be a candidate in November’s special election to fulfill the remainder of his father’s Senate term. Not only does Biden’s decision make Democrats’ efforts to hold the seat exponentially more difficult, leading us to move it to the Solid Republican column, but it impacts the overall Senate math. We have been projecting the range of net gains for Republicans in November at no net change to a pick-up of three seats. With Biden’s decision, we are now projecting a net gain for Republicans of two to four seats in the Senate.
The younger Biden spent much of 2009 in Iraq with his National Guard unit and all expectations were that he would announce his Senate candidacy early this year. Biden was in no hurry. Unlike a vast majority of Senate candidates, Biden did not have to worry about building his name identification or raising money since he is already well known across the small state and campaign contributions were certain to flow once he announced.
Biden’s decision not to
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