The Georgia Senate runoff is just days away now, bringing to an official close the 2022 midterm cycle – and telling us whether Democrats’ majority will remain unchanged at 50-50 or increase to a net gain of one.

Everything has gone right for Senate Democrats this campaign cycle, and they may well not lose a single Senate incumbent. If Sen. Raphael Warnock prevails over his GOP challenger Herschel Walker, it will mean that across both the Senate and governors landscape, only one incumbent (Nevada Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak) will have lost reelection in either party. Where flips did happen, they came in open seats.

As we detailed two weeks ago, the reason it appears Warnock may have a slight advantage going into next Tuesday is because Walker so deeply underperformed the rest of the GOP ticket statewide, where all officials won by 50 percent or more. The former UGA star running back got 203,130 fewer votes than Gov. Brian Kemp, meaning those voters either split their ticket to vote for Warnock, or simply skipped the Senate ballot. And

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