Monday's revelations that Idaho GOP Sen. Larry Craig had pled guilty to a misdemeanor count of disorderly conduct charges resulting from his arrest in June in a Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport restroom has created a firestorm of speculation, not only about Craig's future but the prospects for his Senate seat and the other 33 Senate seats up in 2008.
Much of the commentary has been breathless. One report on a respected news web site went as far as to predict that Democrats are now on the cusp of attaining a 60-seat veto-proof majority. Maybe Washington's ever-present summer humidity has cast a haze over the big picture, but a little perspective is needed.
At this point, there are three scenarios that could unfold: Craig could resign, he might opt to retire at the end of this term, or he could decide to seek re-election. Two of these three options would leave Republicans in a strong position to hold the seat, while the third--Craig seeking re-election--would create a toss-up contest in which Craig would need a combination of luck and a truly weak
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