Last week we moved the Kentucky Senate race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican in light of several polls that showed a tighter race. In the accompanying analysis we noted that Democratic nominee Dan Mongiardo faced more than just GOP incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning in this race, as time and money were proving to be tough opponents as well.
Since last week, Mongiardo has beaten one of those opponents, money. The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee launched an independent expenditure of at least $815,000 to air a television spot criticizing Bunning’s tenure in the Senate. Mongiardo’s fundraising has also improved dramatically, as Democratic-leaning organizations have directed money to his campaign. MoveOn.org is said to have collected at least $160,000 for Mongiardo.
Democrats are also encouraged by two polls released in recent days. The first, a Louisville Courier-Journal survey (October 18-20 of 690 likely voters), gave Bunning a six-point advantage over Mongiardo, 49 percent to 43 percent. Bunning’s favorable/unfavorable ratings were 44 percent to 33 percent, while Mongiardo’s were 43 percent to 26 percent. The second poll was conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang
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