At the beginning of the cycle, this was the one open seat that Democrats weren’t all that worried about. The state tilts toward Democrats and they viewed former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land as one of the weakest challengers Republicans could have recruited. They quickly learned, though, that they underestimated Land, who proved to be a strong fundraiser (and willing to put in her own money) and have some staying power in the polls. At the same time, their own nominee, U.S. Rep. Gary Peters, wasn’t nearly as formidable as they believed. National Democrats had to re-engineer his campaign operation, boost his fundraising and refocus the argument against Land. Land is a cautious candidate and her campaign hasn’t handled Peters’ vulnerabilities effectively enough. The result is that Peters has opened up a small but stable advantage that is difficult for Land to overcome without significant help from an outside group and/or a better political environment. The likelihood of either of those things materializing in the final weeks seems fairly slim. The race moves to the Lean Democratic column.
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