When we first wrote about this race last April, Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow was showing some signs of vulnerability. Her job approval numbers were upside down and she hovered at or below the 50-percent mark in hypothetical general election match ups. Michigan’s economy was still stuck in its long economic downturn.
Working in Stabenow’s favor, though, was that Republicans didn’t have a first-tier candidate to challenge her. Many of the likely suspects, including former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land and the Republican members of the U.S. House delegation, had all taken passes on the race. Fast forward nine months, and the race looks different today. Stabenow’s poll numbers haven’t seen any meaningful improvement and the state’s economy hasn’t made meaningful progress toward recovery (the unemployment rate was 9.3 percent in December). Now, though, Republicans have two candidates who can give the incumbent a competitive race in November. As a result, the race is moving to the Lean Democratic column.
There are now eight announced candidates vying for the Republican nomination. They can be broken down into three tiers. The
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