Democrats netted a major recruitment win in Michigan this week with the entrance of Rep. Elissa Slotkin into the open Senate race. Ever since Sen. Debbie Stabenow announced her retirement last month, the centrist lawmaker and former national security official has been seen as the strongest candidate. Now, it’s increasingly looking like Slotkin will have a relatively clear path to the nomination.

With Democrats already facing a very difficult 2024 map, avoiding a messy and costly primary will go a long way in the broader Senate landscape for the party, especially given it’s an open presidential battleground state they must defend. Republicans need a top tier recruit to make this a contest, and the recent choice of a GOP chairwoman who’s a far-right election denier doesn’t bode a lot of confidence. We started our Michigan Senate rating in Lean Democrat, and we’re keeping it there for now. But if Slotkin can indeed avoid a contentious primary, and unless Republicans are able to field a strong candidate, this race—despite being an open seat—could move off the competitive list as the

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