North Carolina will once again be a Senate battleground in 2022, but this time as an open seat that Democrats hope will give them a chance to flip a red seat back to blue for the first time since 2008.

Thanks to Sen. Richard Burr’s retirement, the Tar Heel State is one of two open seats we rate as a Toss Up in our very early initial 2022 Senate ratings. Given the 2020 presidential results, the open seat in Pennsylvania — which we will profile in the coming weeks — is a slightly better opportunity for Democrats to flip. Republicans are likely to find some confidence that not only did former President Trump win the state by about 1.4 points last November (although that was down from his 3.7 point 2016 victory), but GOP Sen. Thom Tillis beat Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham by 1.8 points.

But, as Georgia showed this cycle, even two years can be a long time in politics for demographics and political alignment to shift even slightly. Most noticeably, just since the November elections, registered

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