In truth, rating this race in which GOP Sen. Gordon Smith is seeking a third term has presented something of a quandary for weeks. One set of facts suggests the current rating of Likely Republican, while another points to a Lean Republican rating.
The case for a Likely Republican rating is that Smith runs solid campaigns and can raise money. At the end of last year, he had raised $7.1 million for the cycle and had $4.4 million in the bank. And if money gets tight, Smith can always dip into his own pocket.
The incumbent works well with Democratic colleague Sen. Ron Wyden. They often travel the state together to hold town meetings. Smith's voting record is right of center, making it difficult to portray him as too conservative for the state (which won't stop Democrats from trying), and although he voted for the war in Iraq, he has become an opponent of the war.
Next, while Democrats have targeted the incumbent in every race since he lost a special election to Wyden in early 1996, they have come
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