When we shifted our Pennsylvania Senate rating to Lean Democrat about six weeks ago, we included this key caveat — Republican spending against Democratic nominee John Fetterman had yet to ramp up, and that while Republican Mehmet Oz still has a hefty problem with his own favorables, that "it's not out of the question that this could move back [to Toss Up] as the election nears."

Now, with five weeks until Election Day, that's exactly where we find this race. In conversations with several GOP strategists and lawmakers — who a month and a half ago had begun to put the Keystone State in the loss column — this has emerged as a margin-of-error race that they once again see winnable. Republicans and Democrats alike admit the race has tightened and that Pennsylvania could be the tipping point state for the Senate majority.

As of Monday evening, the current FiveThirtyEight average shows Fetterman ahead by 6 points, while RealClearPolitics puts the Democrat with a 4.1 point advantage. But recent polls have shown the margin clearly closing between the two

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