We've long pointed to the trend of our Toss Up Senate races largely breaking in one direction when we zoom out and take a historical look at our ratings. 2020 was no different, except every Toss Up race so far has gone Republicans' way — despite Democrats having one of the best maps in many cycles to flip the Senate. Those dimming hopes now solely rest on the dual Georgia runoffs on January 5. If Republicans keep both seats in their column, it will be the first time dating back to 1998 when every Toss Up race broke for one party. If Democrats win both seats (it's hard to see right now how both races don't break the same way), Republicans will still have won 80 percent of the contests. The two Democratic flips came in seats we had rated as Lean Democrat (Arizona and Colorado), and Republicans flipped Alabama (rated as Lean Republican), with Democrats sitting at just one net seat. With new Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly getting sworn in this week, the Senate Subscribe now to continue reading, Flexible plans & easy cancellations, starting as low as $35/month. Learn more. Subscribe now Already a subscriber? Sign in here.