We've long pointed to the trend of our Toss Up Senate races largely breaking in one direction when we zoom out and take a historical look at our ratings.
2020 was no different, except every Toss Up race so far has gone Republicans' way — despite Democrats having one of the best maps in many cycles to flip the Senate. Those dimming hopes now solely rest on the dual Georgia runoffs on January 5.
If Republicans keep both seats in their column, it will be the first time dating back to 1998 when every Toss Up race broke for one party. If Democrats win both seats (it's hard to see right now how both races don't break the same way), Republicans will still have won 80 percent of the contests. The two Democratic flips came in seats we had rated as Lean Democrat (Arizona and Colorado), and Republicans flipped Alabama (rated as Lean Republican), with Democrats sitting at just one net seat. With new Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly getting sworn in this week, the Senate
What is The Cook Political Report?
The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.