As we continue to parse the results from the 2022 midterms, we are diving into some of the data to better understand why Democrats had a better than expected night and why Republicans underperformed, despite having historical trends on their side.
In the statewide races, Democrats are assured control of the Senate for another Congress, though we are waiting to see whether that means a 50 or a 51 seat majority until the outcome of the December 6 Georgia runoff. In the 36 gubernatorial races, Democrats netted two seats, bringing the national breakdown to 26R-24D.
So here are some of our takeaways and charts that you can chew on as a data appetizer to your Thanksgiving meal.
It really does come down to the swing voters. In almost every single Senate race with an incumbent, Independents backed the eventual winner—some by a significant margin. In the first round in Georgia, Sen. Raphael Warnock won independents by 11 points over Republican challenger Herschel
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.