Bottom Lines are our most up-to-date take on a race.

ARIZONA:

As Republican U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake gears up to seek a second term, his first obstacle will be his own party. Late last year, Kelli Ward, a former state Senator, announced that she would challenge Flake in a primary. Ward ran against U.S. Sen. John McCain in the 2016 primary, taking 40 percent of the vote. That percentage says more about the very conservative nature of the state’s Republican primary electorate and its dislike of McCain than it does about Ward or the campaign she ran. State Treasurer Jeff DeWit, an avid Trump supporter, and former state party chairman Robert Graham have also been mentioned as possible primary challengers, and are potentially bigger threats to Flake than Ward. Flake has been battered on both the left and the right over health care reform, and his recently published book, Conscience of a Conservative: A Rejection of Destructive Politics and a Return to Principle, has not been well received by some conservatives (although few voters primary voters are likely to

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