Over the past few election cycles, it's become clear that the best predictor of Senate race outcomes we have is the state's most recent presidential election result.
In presidential years, the results increasingly line up almost identically. In 2016, every Senate race went the same way as the White House result. In 2020, only one senator — Republican Susan Collins of Maine — won re-election even as President Joe Biden carried her state.
There is a slight deviation during midterm years — offering some hope to both parties in the 2022 map – but even that is becoming rare. In 2014 — the last time the GOP flipped the Senate — just three races voted differently than how they had in 2012. In 2018 — a good Democratic year, but seven races went differently when the party was cursed with an exceedingly tricky map. While Democrats like Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Joe Donnelly of Indiana, other red-state Democrats like Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.