Democrats want to put as many Republican-held seats in play as possible. In a best case scenario it puts them in a strong position if a wave develops in the fall. At the very least, they hope it forces Republicans to devote resources to more races, spreading them thin. As part of their strategy, Democrats recruited first-tier candidates in a number of states. Some may never become competitive, while others may just end up on our watch list. A couple will make it into the Lean Republican and perhaps into the Toss Up column eventually. Two races that have found their way into Lean Republican are in Arizona against GOP U.S. Sen. John McCain and in Missouri against U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt. This move hasn’t been triggered by specific events or any mistakes on the part of the incumbents. Nor has it been motivated by anything their challengers have done. Rather, it is about the overall political environment in these states, and how it may impact the outcome of these races.

Arizona Senate

Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain has always

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