Staring down what should have been a historically bad midterm and aided by a weak economy and an unpopular president, Senate Democrats defied the odds and actually added a seat to their roster in the 2022 midterm cycle. Now, the real test is whether they can defy political gravity again, given they are now staring down an even worse map with red state or swing state Democratic incumbents that puts them almost entirely on defense.

The 2024 Senate map puts 23 Democrats up for reelection, compared to just 11 Republicans (with one of those being a special election). But if you dig down deeper into those nearly two dozen defensive seats, three voted comfortably for President Trump in 2020. Ohio was the closest, but has moved off the perpetual presidential swing state list after President Biden lost it by eight points in 2020. And then there are the two states Biden lost by overwhelming, double-digits margins: Montana (Trump +16) and West Virginia (Trump +39).

Several Senate seats are also presidential battleground states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin –

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