Republicans enter the final days of the midterms with the political winds at their backs and the slight momentum in the battle for Senate control. While a handful of races remain incredibly tight, and polls show they could go either way, the far better national environment for Republicans has many Democratic strategists we have talked to staring down a gloomy prospect.

Several have wished this election could have been held even a month ago, but it appears Republicans could be peaking at the right time. More traditional midterm expectations seem to have again taken hold, which is never good news for the president’s party. While Democrats saw momentum swing in their favor this summer on abortion following the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, the economy, inflation and crime are now driving a dour environment across the board. While Republicans are still beset by many weak nominees that have been bailed out on air by superPACs, it appears that the climate may end up winning out over candidate quality.

As such, we are changing our range of most likely outcomes

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