Sunday marks 100 days until the November 6 general election, and questions remain as to which of two political dynamics will prevail: the political environment or the political map. These dynamics are naturally in conflict and the one that ends up driving the election determines which party can claim victory.

The Political Environment

Typically, the political environment drives mid-term elections. If this is the prevailing dynamic in November, then Democrats have good reason to be enthusiastic about their chances to win the majority. Nearly every data point that constitutes the political environment favors Democrats. The first, of course, is the losses that the party in power experiences in mid-term elections. This trend is less prevalent in the Senate than it is in the House, but the party in power has lost seats in the Senate in 73 percent of mid-term elections (17 of 26) held since the popular election of Senators began after 1913.

A President’s job approval rating is also a factor. The more below 50 percent a President’s job rating is, the more members of his party have

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