Bored waiting for recounts and run-offs to be completed?  Already having election withdrawal?  You can occupy your time or satisfy that insatiable election craving with our first 2020 Senate race ratings.  There are 34 races in 2020; Democrats are defending 12 seats to 22 for Republicans.  There are a number of potential retirements, but no one up in 2020 has definitively said that they intend to retire.

As long-time readers know, no race ever starts in Toss Up in the absence of an announced first-tier challenger.  Most of the races in this class are starting in the Solid columns, but that doesn’t mean that they will stay there.  In other words, this doesn’t appear to be a very competitive cycle at first glance, but we expect that there will be a handful of very competitive races. Download a copy of the ratings here.

2020 Senate Race Ratings:



2020 Senate At-A-Glance:

The At-A-Glance is our first take on potential challengers.  Culled from conversations with consultants and operatives in various states, as well as news reports and our own knowledge of which elected officials harbor ambitions for higher office, these early lists are still very speculative.  Some of these candidates will in fact jump into races over the next year, others will signal a lack of interest.

As a reminder, the numbers following potential candidate names indicates:

  1. an announced candidate
  2. an all-but-announced candidate
  3. mentioned as a potential candidate and may or may not run
  4. mentioned as a potential candidate, but almost certainly won’t run


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