If Senate Democrats were handed a tough hand in 2018, they will find this cycle more hospitable as it’s Republicans who will be playing defense in 2020. There are 34 races on the roster next year: Republicans will be defending 22 of those seats while Democrats need to defend just 12. In order for Democrats to take the majority, they need to pick up four seats if Republicans retain the White House, or three seats if President Trump loses re-election. Democrats’ Achilles Heel last cycle was having five seats in states that Trump won by 19 points or more in 2016, and another five seats in states that he carried by between one and six points. They ended up losing three of the five seats in the first group and just one in the second group. Democrats won’t face a similar problem this cycle; only one of their 12 seats is in a state that Trump carried (Alabama – Trump +28 points). They are defending three more seats in swing states: Minnesota (Clinton +2 points) and New Hampshire (Clinton -
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.