Two things tend to happen in the final weeks of an election cycle: a few races that we’ve been watching become more competitive while others that had the potential to become very close recede to safer columns for the party holding the seats. Both are true when it comes to today’s rating changes.

Ratings Changes:

Montana (D – Tester): Lean Democrat to Toss Up → Ohio (D – Brown): Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat ← Nebraska (R – Fischer): Likely Republican to Solid Republican → New Jersey (D – Menendez): Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat →


There was a time over the summer when it appeared that Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester would cruise to re-election. Republicans hosted a contentious primary in June that State Auditor Matt Rosendale won with 34 percent to 28 for former Yellowstone County District Judge Russell Fagg, and 19 percent each for USAF veteran and storage company CEO Troy Downing and state Sen. Albert Olszewski. While Republicans seemed to struggle to unite around Rosendale, Democrats launched a relentless round of attacks, labeling

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