Bottom Lines are our most current take on a race.


Citing his frustration with President Trump and the direction of the Republican Party, U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake announced on October 24 that he would not run for a second term. Flake had been facing a primary challenge from former state Sen. Kelli Ward, who ran against U.S. Sen. John McCain in the 2016 primary, taking 40 percent of the vote. That percentage says more about the very conservative nature of the state’s Republican primary electorate and its dislike of McCain than it does about Ward or the campaign she ran. Ward will have opposition for the nomination. U.S. Rep. Martha McSally is all but announced, while former state party chairman Robert Graham is looking at the race. Joe Arpaio, the controversial former sheriff of Maricopa County, has talked about running, but it seems unlikely that he will ultimately get in. Meanwhile, Democrats got their first choice of challenger in U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. Sinema was first elected in 2012 to represent the 9th congressional district, which encompasses the central

More from the Cook Political Report

First Person
Cook Politcal Logo