Bottom Lines are our most current take on a race.
Citing his frustration with President Trump and the direction of the Republican Party, U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake announced on October 24 of last year that he would not run for a second term. Flake had been facing a primary challenge from former state Sen. Kelli Ward, who ran against U.S. Sen. John McCain in the 2016 primary, taking 40 percent of the vote. That percentage says more about the very conservative nature of the state’s Republican primary electorate and its dislike of McCain than it does about Ward or the campaign she ran. But, Flake’s absence doesn’t mean that Ward has the nomination wrapped up. U.S. Rep. Martha McSally has announced her candidacy. McSally, who made history as the first female combat fighter pilot, was first elected to represent the Tucson-based 2nd congressional district in 2014. The 2nd district has a PVI of R+1, meaning that it votes one point more Republican than the nation as a whole. While GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney won the district by two
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