If the battle for the Senate majority is going to be the focus of your Election Night viewing, get very comfortable. It's going to be a long night. Simply looking at poll closing times is deceiving. At 7:00 pm (EST), polls close in Indiana and at 7:30 pm (EST) they start counting votes in North Carolina. These are two of the seven seats in the Toss Up column. At 8:00 pm (EST), the polls close in Missouri, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. This brings the number of Toss Ups to five of seven. Theoretically, the results in these five races should tell us which party will control the Senate, particularly since Democrats have a bit of an edge in the remaining two seats: Wisconsin (9:00 pm EST) and Nevada (10:00 pm EST). The reality is, though, that these five contests are all so close that there won't be any early calls. They will come much later in the night, and possibly not until after 11:00 pm (EST). We continue to believe that Democrats will pick up between four and six seats.
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.