With just three weeks until Election Day, the Senate map and outcomes are coming into focus — through the clear signs that this is not a typical midterm election have caused some surprising shifts.

Republicans are in a better place than they were in late summer and early September, with the generic ballot moving in their direction. Many of the races — even with lackluster GOP nominees — have been tightening along partisan lines, as we long expected would happen.

We will have more in our latest Senate overview coming later this week, looking at the state of play, how we believe our Toss Up ratings may break, whether other Lean races could shift, and more. But for now, we are shifting three races on the periphery of our ratings.

FLORIDA: Lean Republican → Likely Republican

We have long thought that this was the hardest of the GOP-held races for Democrats to flip in the Lean Republican column. The Sunshine State has only trended redder in recent years, especially as former President Trump increased his share of

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