Overall, the 2006 Senate race landscape has shifted by inches, not yards, in the past few months. While there have certainly been significant and unexpected events--the serious primary challenge to Sen. Joe Lieberman in Connecticut and state Senate President Jon Tester's upset in the Montana Democratic primary--these events have not changed the larger picture.

There remain five very vulnerable Republican incumbents--Sens. Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Conrad Burns in Montana, Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island, Mike DeWine in Ohio and Jim Talent in Missouri--plus a vulnerable open seat in Tennessee. Democrats still only have one race, the open seat in Minnesota, in the Toss Up column. There are six seats in the Lean Democratic column; Sens. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, Ben Nelson in Nebraska, Bob Menendez in New Jersey, and Maria Cantwell in Washington State, as well as the open seats in Maryland and to a lesser extent, Vermont. One or two of these seats will inevitably wind up in the Toss Up column in the fall. West Virginia Sen. Robert Byrd remains on the watch list.

By and large,

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