With just over eight months until the 2022 midterm elections, the political environment continues to look incredibly dour for Democrats. President Biden has yet to recover from the August slump he hit with a tornado of inflation, a disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal and the viscous Delta COVID variant. While he could benefit from the impending Supreme Court nomination he’s set to make, that is being overshadowed by the foreign policy crisis Biden is staring down as Russia has invaded Ukraine.

The president’s approval ratings reflect the chaos, with the most recent FiveThirtyEight average pegging him at just 42.2 percent approve/53.9 percent disapprove. That’s roughly where former President Trump was at this juncture in the 2018 cycle in which Republicans lost 40 House seats. Democrats had an incredibly difficult Senate map that cycle, but held their losses to just two seats.

While the House is in far more dire jeopardy of flipping control, the Senate map will certainly be affected by the White House and the national mood. To that extent, when looking at our ratings holistically, we see

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