It’s no secret that Democrats face a very brutal 2024 Senate map that puts them almost entirely on defense and searching for offensive opportunities. In our initial race ratings, there was only one GOP-held seat we put in a non-solid category: Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who we rated as Likely Republican; this designation means we do not consider the race competitive at this point, but it has the potential to become engaged.
The other possible race where Democrats could go on offense is in Texas against Sen. Ted Cruz, which we rate as Solid Republican. We’ve been asked by a number of people why we gave Texas this designation. So we wanted to explore the race a bit more, look at new possible candidates that have (and haven’t) emerged, and explain why we remain skeptical that this could become a viable competitive race.
Democrats will always salivate at any attempt to take on Cruz, a polarizing figure who escaped in 2018 by a closer-than-expected 50.9%-48.3% margin over then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke despite being outspent $79.1 million to $45.6 million. In
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.