For once, a slight rebound in "swing seats"
The most striking House statistic of the last 25 years may be the decline of competitive districts.
After the hyper-polarized 2016 election, there were only 72 districts between D+5 and R+5 — less than one-sixth of the House and a 56 percent decline since 1997. in 2020, for the first time since we launched the PVI in 1997, the number of "swing seats" rebounded slightly from 72 to 78.
After the hyper-polarized 2016 election, there were only 72 districts between D+5 and R+5 — less than one-sixth of the House and a 56 percent decline since 1997. in 2020, for the first time since we launched the PVI in 1997, the number of "swing seats" rebounded slightly from 72 to 78.
What’s changed: Top trending districts
The Trump era reordered the political map. Of the 25 districts that shifted most dramatically towards the GOP in our newest PVI, five are in Ohio and another three are in Iowa, with two each in northern Minnesota, South Florida, South Texas and Michigan's Thumb.
Meanwhile, nearly all the top 25 most Democratic-trending districts are anchored by affluent suburbs — including ten in Texas, three in Georgia, three in Southern California.
Meanwhile, nearly all the top 25 most Democratic-trending districts are anchored by affluent suburbs — including ten in Texas, three in Georgia, three in Southern California.
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