In February, Democrats were on pace to come out modestly ahead in redistricting, defying initial expectations. But in the final stretch, the plot has twisted once again: Ohio's GOP ran out the clock on legal challenges to their gerrymander, and a Maryland judge struck down Democrats' contorted plan. Above all, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is poised to ram through a brutal gerrymander that could add four more GOP seats in the Sunshine State.
Our latest scorecard projects a Democratic net gain of between zero and one seat from redistricting alone - virtually no partisan shift from the current maps (and down from a four to five-seat gain in February). That's a disappointment for Democrats who had hoped that favorable state court rulings in North Carolina and Pennsylvania and their own gerrymanders in Illinois and New York would erase the House map's GOP skew.
By far the biggest new pro-GOP shifts in our outlook are in Florida and Ohio, where Republicans appear to be successfully circumventing state-based anti-gerrymandering laws that once looked like constraints on their ambitions, at least for this cycle.
The biggest shift from the 2022 remap? A continued decimation of competitive seats. With only three states remaining to finalize lines (Florida, Missouri and New Hampshire), the number of House seats decided by five points or less in the 2020 presidential election is on track to plummet from 51 of 435 to between 30 and 35 — a decline of more than a third — making the House much less "elastic" than it used to be.
To help you keep track of what's unfolding, the scorecard below estimates how many seats each party is on track to gain or lose in each state due to redistricting alone. For example, West Virginia is slated to lose a seat, and because all three current incumbents are Republicans, we’re “scoring” it as a GOP loss of one. In Colorado, where a new competitive seat might be drawn, we’re listing a 0.5 seat gain for both parties.
Please note that this chart doesn't factor in the political environment or factors specific to each race (such as candidate quality). Overall, Republicans remain favored to gain well more than the five seats they need to regain the House majority this fall.
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.