This race call is one of the toughest we've had in a long time. The modern electoral history of federal statewide races in Massachusetts argues strongly that while state Attorney General Martha Coakley, the Democratic nominee, could have a close race, at the end of the day it's unlikely that she ends up losing. After all, no Republican Senate candidate has won in the Bay State since 1972.
But the non-quantitative arguments are quite strong. Republican Scott Brown has been the superior candidate with, by a long shot, the better campaign.
Though badly outnumbered in the state, conservative and Republican voters in Massachusetts seem to have an unbelievable intensity. Indeed, polls show the tighter the screen, the less Coakley's edge appears to be. In some really tightly screened surveys, she has no advantage. In a low turnout election, the tighter screened polls tend to be more instructive than ones of all registered voters or even those screened for presidential or typical midterm election turnout levels.
Obviously, this election will be first be determined by whether the enthusiastic but badly outnumbered
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