Competitive House Districts: Kentucky to Ohio
August 24, 2018 | David Wasserman with maps by J. Miles Coleman and Ally Flinn
KY-06: Andy Barr (R) - East central: Lexington, Frankfort
Toss Up. Despite the fact President Trump carried this Lexington district by 15 points in 2016, polling conducted by both parties continues to show three-term GOP Rep. Andy Barr slightly trailing his Democratic opponent. Retired Marine combat pilot Amy McGrath appears to be benefiting from heavy ad spending for the May 22 primary, in which she upset Lexington Mayor Jim Gray 49 percent to 41 percent. Barr didn't have a competitive primary.
The DCCC had initially signaled its preference for Gray, a construction executive who carried the 6th CD as Democrats' 2016 Senate nominee and would have been capable of self-funding the fall race. But McGrath stormed out of the gate with a powerful bio video about being the first female to fly an F-18 fighter jet in combat, raised $2 million for a cheap media market, and toppled amid huge Democratic turnout.
Republicans believe the 6th CD's strong GOP bent will reassert itself when voters find out more about McGrath. They'll attack McGrath, who grew up in Northern Kentucky, as a carpetbagger for moving from Maryland in 2017 (she worked at the Pentagon and taught at the Naval Academy). They'll also use McGrath's heavy reliance on out-of-state contributions, including from celebrities like George Clooney, to cast her as a Hollywood liberal.
Late in the primary, Gray turned to these lines of attack with an ad titled "Never Lived Here," and came up short. But Barr and Republicans will also trot out remarks McGrath made last November at an Indivisible Bourbon County event in which she appeared to compare how she felt about Trump's election to the aftermath of a terrorist attack: "The only feeling I can describe that's anything close to it was the feeling I had after 9/11."
Barr sits on the powerful Financial Services Committee and had $2.7 million on hand in June, but both parties agree he starts out behind. In early August, he took the rare step of going up with an early negative ad with tracker clips of McGrath saying "Hell yeah, I'm a feminist" and saying she voted for Barack Obama. That probably isn't big news to most voters, but it's the beginning of a lengthy fight on the cheap Lexington airwaves.
ME-02: Bruce Poliquin (R) - North: Bangor, Lewiston, "Down East"
Toss Up. Poliquin has proven an elusive Democratic target. In both 2014 and 2016, Democrats touted promising polls and swore they could turn Poliquin's wealth and Wall Street past against him. But both times, Republicans effectively cast Orono state Sen. Emily Cain as an Ivy League elitist who grew up outside the state, and Poliquin prevailed in this mostly rural, working-class Down East district.
In 2018, 35-year-old state Rep. Jared Golden presents a much tougher contrast for Poliquin, 64. Unlike Cain, Golden grew up squarely in the 2nd CD in the dairy farm town of Leeds. He enlisted in the Marines after 9/11, served several tours blowing down doors in Iraq and Afghanistan, and even worked several years on GOP Sen. Susan Collins's homeland security committee and personal office staff.
On June 26, Golden won the Democratic primary 49 percent to 42 percent against wealthy environmental activist Lucas St. Clair, whose liberalism and recent residency in Portland likely would have doomed him in November. Now, Golden plans to contrast himself as a "Marine who runs into fire" against an incumbent who "ducks into bathrooms" when asked which way he'll vote on repealing the ACA.
The 2nd CD has a strong union Democratic heritage but a proud independent streak. It's 94 percent white and 22 percent of adults hold college degrees. For over a decade it reelected pro-life Democrat Mike Michaud, and in 2012, it voted for Barack Obama by nine points. But in 2014, GOP Gov. Paul LePage trampled Michaud here. In 2016, it gave Donald Trump its lone electoral vote, 51 percent to 41 percent.
However, Golden has a base in union-heavy Lewiston and is the type of Democrat who could take advantage of a favorable national environment. In some ways, he could be Maine's version of Conor Lamb: he's pro-choice but pro-tariff, pledges he won't support Nancy Pelosi for speaker and won't be afraid to talk about his experiences leading troops in combat or demonstrate his facility with firearms in ads.
Democrats argue the political environment has changed dramatically here since 2016, thanks to the GOP's healthcare and tax bills, both of which Poliquin supported. In fall 2017, the 2nd CD voted by four points for a ballot initiative to expand Medicaid over LePage's objections. Poliquin backers suggest that's a misleading indicator because the pro-expansion side vastly outspent the LePage side.
Indeed, money is going to be Golden's biggest hurdle. Poliquin filed with $2.6 million on hand at the end of June, while Golden had just $356,000 on hand after his competitive primary. Poliquin is already on air calling Golden a "radical liberal politician" who would raise taxes. The cash differential could force the DCCC, VoteVets or others to spend heavily here to keep Golden in contention early in the fall.
Another twist: this fall, Maine will be using Ranked-Choice Voting in a general election for the first time, which could help Golden. In 2014, Poliquin won with just 47 percent while an independent took 11 percent. This year, there are two left-leaning independents on the 2nd CD ballot. But if their voters select Golden as their second choice, those votes would go to Golden in an "instant runoff" if no one breaks 50 percent.
MI-08: Mike Bishop (R) - Central: Lansing, Detroit exurbs
Toss Up.The Detroit suburbs are an important House battleground. Two-term GOP Rep. Mike Bishop didn't have a well-funded opponent in 2014 or 2016, but that's changed this year. Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who grew up in a well-known meatpacking family in rural Holly and served three tours in Iraq as an Arabic-proficient CIA analyst, has raised over $2 million and ended March with more cash on hand than Bishop.
The 8th CD combines Republican-leaning areas of Oakland County with the liberal state capital of Lansing. In 2016, it voted for President Trump 51 percent to 44 percent, while Bishop took 56 percent against a young prosecutor who got a late start. But in 2018, Democrats will finally have the resources to litigate Bishop's record, and multiple private surveys depict Bishop in weak shape.
Slotkin will contrast her service in sensitive areas of the world with Bishop's lengthy political career. Prior to his election, Bishop served as majority leader of the state Senate and made several enemies for trying to block construction of a new bridge to Canada at a prominent donor's behest. Democrats will also go after Bishop's votes in favor of the GOP's healthcare and tax bills.
Slotkin's most glaring vulnerability is the "carpetbagging elitist" label: she moved back to Michigan from DC in 2017 after wrapping up her post as Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense and hadn't been registered to vote in Michigan since she left for college at Cornell University. But her cash advantage means she'll likely get to define the terms of debate just as much as Bishop.
MI-11: OPEN (Trott)(R) - Detroit west suburbs: Livonia, Novi
Toss Up. Trott's retirement after just two terms makes this suburban Detroit seat a top Democratic pickup opportunity. It's heavily gerrymandered and voted for President Trump 49 percent to 45 percent, but it has by far the highest percentage of college graduates in the state. In early August, Republican Lena Epstein and Democrat Haley Stevens won their primaries, setting up a battle between two young women.
Epstein, who co-owns her family's auto lubrication dynasty, served as Trump's 2016 Michigan campaign chair and dropped down from the Senate race to this House contest last year. She has loaned her campaign $990,000, allowing her to win the primary with 31 percent. Democrats will attack her as too conservative, citing her Fox News appearances in support of the GOP's health care repeal bill last year.
Stevens won a crowded Democratic primary with 27 percent. The 33-year-old served as chief of staff to the Obama Auto Task Force and beat out more experienced candidates, including former state House Minority Leader Tim Greimel. She didn't have EMILY's List's endorsement because of the presence of other women in the primary but did receive a late primary endorsement from Hillary Clinton.
Each side is likely to highlight their opponent's close association with an unpopular 2016 nominee. But Democrats express slightly more optimism than the GOP about their prospects here.
MN-01: OPEN (Walz) (D) - South: Rochester, Mankato, Faribault
Toss Up. Republicans should have an excellent shot to pick up this rural southern Minnesota seat now that Democratic Rep. Tim Walz is vacating it to run for governor. After all, President Trump won it 53 percent to 38 percent in 2016 and Walz nearly got swept out, winning reelection by less than a point against Republican Jim Hagedorn. But today, Republicans might be on the verge of blowing it.
Democrats are seeking to replace one Iraq War veteran, Walz, with another: former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Dan Feehan. But there's a catch: Feehan spent much of the previous decade registered to vote in DC and only moved back to Minnesota in 2017 to run for Congress, whereas Walz was a popular local high school teacher and football coach when he was elected in 2006.
Feehan, 35, grew up in Red Wing (just outside the 1st CD), went to Georgetown, and signed up for the Army ROTC after 9/11. He was awarded a Bronze Star in Iraq and subsequently earned his MPP from Harvard's Kennedy School before serving in a variety of readiness roles at the Department of Defense under the Obama administration. He's raised $996,000 and avoided a competitive primary.
However, Republicans may have just robbed themselves of the DC/carpetbagger line of attack by nominating Hagedorn again. This is Hagedorn's fourth run for the 1st CD (he lost the primary in 2010 and to Walz in 2014 and 2016). The son of former Minnesota Rep. Tom Hagedorn went to high school in Northern Virginia and worked for years in DC as a congressional staffer and at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing.
Hagedorn's name recognition from his previous runs and enthusiasm for Trump helped him raise $810,000 and beat state Sen. Carla Nelson in the primary, 60 percent to 32 percent. But many Republicans grumble Nelson would have had broader appeal in November, in part because Hagedorn once called female senators "undeserving bimbos in tennis shoes," on his personal blog, "Mr. Conservative."
Democrats have never run a negative ad against Hagedorn before because he wasn't viewed as a serious threat. But now, it's open season and they have almost too much material. Democrats may also benefit if rural independents blame Trump's tariffs for escalating trade tensions that have hurt corn, soybean and pork prices. It's still highly competitive, but Democrats are increasingly upbeat.
MN-02: Jason Lewis (R) - Twin Cities south suburbs: Eagan, Burnsville
Toss Up. Amazingly, this is the only highly competitive race in the country that's a rematch from 2016. That year, Lewis defeated Democrat Angie Craig by a slim 47 percent to 45 percent, with left-leaning Independent Paula Overby taking eight percent. This time, Lewis starts as an underdog, in part because there won't be any "spoiler" on the 2nd CD ballot: Overby is a Green Party nominee for Senate instead.
But Lewis's biggest problem is simply the political climate. The former conservative Twin Cities radio host, once known as "Minnesota's Mr. Right," has taken every major GOP vote in a suburban district that voted for President Trump 46 percent to 45 percent. And Craig, a former St. Jude Medical communications executive, never stopped running: she has $1.5 million on hand to Lewis's $1.2 million in June.
Democrats probably miscalculated in 2016 by simply casting Lewis as a mini-Trump. In its ads, the DCCC used old radio snippets of Lewis saying "vast majority of young single women are non-thinking" and comparing welfare to slavery, spliced with footage of Trump rallies. But both Trump and Lewis carried the district. This year, CNN unearthed new damning Lewis clips. But now, they can be linked to a voting record.
Craig also admits her own messaging fell short and has switched up her media team. As a successful businesswoman who grew up in an Arkansas trailer park and came out as gay in high school, she has an impressive personal story. But in her 2016 ads, she was lecturing voters from a corporate boardroom. The 2nd CD has its fair share of professional suburbs, but it's got plenty of small blue-collar towns too.
After the razor-thin margin two years ago, this is one of the Democrats' top pickup opportunities in the country, and Craig is probably the narrow favorite.
MN-03: Erik Paulsen (R) - Twin Cities west suburbs: Bloomington, Plymouth
Toss Up. Stylistically, the mild-mannered and neighborly Paulsen is a good fit for this highly college-educated suburban Minneapolis seat that has a history of electing moderate Republicans. In 2016, he won his fifth term with 57 percent. But now he finds himself in deep trouble after voting for the GOP healthcare and tax bills in a district that voted for Hillary Clinton 50 percent to 41 percent.
Democrats have a strong nominee in vodka and gelato businessman Dean Phillips, the grandson of advice columnist "Dear Abby" and great-great-grandson of the founder of the Minneapolis-based Phillips Distilling Company. Phillips avoided a competitive primary and has raised $2.2 million to the incumbent's $3.7 million, and several private polls have shown Phillips tied or leading the incumbent.
Republicans will try to attack Phillips as a slicked-back, out-of-touch millionaire, but Phillips has yet to self-fund and has sought to channel the late populist Sen. Paul Wellstone by driving around in a refurbished 1960s-era International Harvester he calls a "government repair truck." It's a gimmick to downplay his wealth, but a sign he's aware a traditional campaign won't work in Minnesota.
For his part, Paulsen has tried to create separation from President Trump by airing an ad featuring him paddling a canoe, touting his opposition to mining near the Boundary Waters Canoe Wilderness Area. But Democrats have already reserved millions in the Minneapolis market to argue Paulsen has "voted with Trump 97 percent of the time." If Paulsen's numbers don't recover by October, he probably won't survive.
MN-08: OPEN (Nolan) (D) - Northeast/Iron Range: Duluth, Bemidji
Toss Up. DFL Rep. Rick Nolan is retiring from this union-heavy Iron Range district in 2018, giving Republicans an excellent chance to pick up a traditionally Democratic seat that voted twice for Barack Obama but swung hard to Donald Trump in 2016, 54 percent to 38 percent. In fact, apart from a redrawn seat in western Pennsylvania, the 8th CD may be Republicans' single best opportunity to flip a Democratic seat.
Republicans have a very credible nominee in St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber, who didn't have to worry about a primary. His fundraising hasn't broken any records (he had $414,000 on hand at the end of June), but as a 23-year-old veteran of the Duluth Police Department and union member who briefly played hockey in the Detroit Red Wings organization, Stauber has a good profile for this blue-collar seat.
Meanwhile, Democrats held a crowded primary on August 14. Former Nolan campaign manager and state Rep. Joe Radinovich emerged with 44 percent, to 28 percent for former local news anchor Michelle Lee. Radinovich had Nolan's support and was the only Democrat who could afford to go up on broadcast, stressing his roots as a "fourth generation Cuyuna Iron Ranger" and refusal to accept corporate PAC money.
Radinovich, 32, emerged from a tragic childhood: his mother was murdered in their kitchen by his step-grandfather when he was in high school. In 2012, he was elected to the state House from a swing seat, losing in 2014. In 2017, Radinovich moved to Minneapolis to manage Jacob Frey's campaign for mayor and later signed on as his chief of staff. But those big city ties could be a general election liability.
The Iron Range is one part of Minnesota where Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs could boost GOP enthusiasm. In fact, Trump has a personal commitment to this race: in June, he rallied with Stauber in Duluth. And Stauber is a much better fit for blue-collar voters than multi-millionaire businessman Stewart Mills, who lost to Nolan the past two cycles. It would be something of a coup for Democrats to hold this seat.
MT-AL: Greg Gianforte (R) - At Large: Entire State
Lean Republican. In a bit of an upset, Bozeman area state Rep. Kathleen Williams won the June 5 Democratic primary over two much better-funded opponents with 34 percent. Williams had the advantage of being the only credible woman in the contest against two men, but some credit her bio video about being a caregiver to her mother who had early onset Alzheimer's and her stance on pre-existing conditions.
Gianforte won last May's special election by six points a day after infamously leveling a reporter, but Democrat Rob Quist had his share of flaws and most ballots were cast before the incident. A June Gravis Marketing poll found Williams leading Gianforte 49 percent to 43 percent, similar to Democratic Sen. Jon Tester's lead atop the ballot. Republicans beg to differ with those numbers, but at a minimum it's competitive.
NE-02: Don Bacon (R) - East: Omaha and suburbs
Lean Republican. Democrats probably suffered a setback here when moderate former Rep. Brad Ashford was upset in the May Democratic primary by progressive non-profit executive Kara Eastman, 51 percent to 49 percent. In 2016, Ashford lost this job in one of the closest races of the year to Bacon, a retired brigadier general and the former commander at Offutt Air Force Base.
Ashford had cultivated close ties with the Omaha business community over his one term in Congress and had endorsements from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and NFIB in his 2016 run. But Eastman, a single-payer supporter, may not have access to the same kind of support. Republicans note that a Bernie Sanders-backed Omaha mayoral candidate lost badly last year, and that the 2nd CD as a whole is more Republican than Omaha.
Democratic insiders chide Ashford for not putting in the work required to mount an effective comeback. For much of 2017, he and his wife had toyed with which one of them would run, and Ashford's fundraising lagged behind other top-tier Democratic challengers. Eastman, who started an anti-lead poisoning organization, raised less but emphasized she was a "lifelong Democrat," a subtle nod to Ashford's Republican past.
This race is by no means over. After all, supposedly "unelectable" candidates often do prevail in wave elections. However, Eastman ended June with $258,000 to Bacon's $1 million, and the burden of proof is on Eastman to demonstrate broader appeal.
NV-03: OPEN (Rosen) (D) - South: south Las Vegas suburbs, Henderson
Lean Democratic. Ordinarily, an open seat that President Trump carried by a point would be a terrific GOP pickup opportunity. But nothing's coming easy for Republicans this fall, and this diverse, suburban Henderson seat may be slipping away. Wealthy Democratic education non-profit executive Susie Lee is the favorite over GOP perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian, who lost by a point here in 2016.
Lee grew up in Ohio and touts her working class roots. But she's married to gaming executive Dan Lee, former CFO of Mirage Resorts, and has been a major Democratic donor for years. She resides in upscale Summerlin (outside the 3rd CD) and ran in the Democratic primary for the 4th CD in 2016, placing third. Republicans will attack her for her lavish vacation homes and private plane use.
However, Tarkanian brings much higher negatives to the race. He's the son of legendary UNLV coach Jerry Tarkanian but has lost races for Senate in 2010 and House in 2012 and 2016 amid scrutiny of failed real estate deals that led to bankruptcies. He initially filed to primary GOP Sen. Dean Heller this year, angering some Republicans, but dropped down to the House race when President Trump endorsed the incumbent.
Tarkanian was able to transfer the cash from his Senate race to this contest but had to spend plenty of it to win his primary, defeating TV reporter Michelle Mortensen 44 percent to 24 percent. He enters the home stretch with a cash deficit ($1.1 million to $656,000). Tarkanian underperformed Trump here in 2016, and private polling conducted by both parties shows Lee with a modest lead.
NH-01: OPEN (Shea-Porter) (D) - East: Manchester, Portsmouth
Lean Democratic. For four straight elections between 2010 and 2016, this seat was a ping-pong ball: Democrat Carol-Shea Porter and Republican Frank Guinta battled non-stop, each winning twice. Mercifully, neither are running in 2018. This district has one of the highest shares of back-and-forth independent voters in the country, and in 2018 their mood swing may help Democrats keep the 1st CD in their column.
Republicans were initially excited about competing for a seat that President Trump carried, 48 percent to 46 percent. But the GOP field has underwhelmed: conservative state Sen. Andy Sanborn's state senate district is in the 2nd CD, and former South Hampton police chief/liquor commissioner Eddie Edwards hasn't raised much money. This week, wealthy tech executive Bruce Crochietiere dropped out, citing family concerns.
There are technically 11 Democrats on the September 11 primary ballot, including Sen. Bernie Sanders's 48-year-old son Levi Sanders, a paralegal who lives an hour's drive outside the 1st CD. But the Democratic race has boiled down to Iraq War veteran/former Assistant VA Secretary Maura Sullivan ($1 million on hand at the end of June) and Executive Councilor Chris Pappas ($440,000 on hand).
Pappas was the initial Democratic front-runner. After all, he's a proven vote-getter who represents much of the 1st CD, is the state's top gay elected official and has been viewed as a rising star. He grew up in Manchester, graduated from Harvard and moved back to operate his family's restaurant, where he still works. But according to insiders, he simply hasn't raised the money required to put the race away.
Instead, the momentum appears to be with Sullivan, even though she first moved to New Hampshire last year and had been mentioned as a possible candidate in Illinois's 6th CD this cycle. Sullivan grew up in Evanston, Illinois, attended Northwestern on a Marine Corps ROTC scholarship, and deployed as an officer to Fallujah, Iraq, in 2005. She subsequently earned MBA and MPA degrees from Harvard.
Sullivan has ardent support from VoteVets and EMILY's List and rationalizes her decision to lay down roots in New Hampshire by pointing to her time as a manager for PepsiCo's New England Franchise Bottling business between 2011 and 2014, prior to joining the Obama administration. It's possible her recent military service and Democrats' desire to nominate women will help her overcome the carpetbagger label.
If Sanborn prevails on the GOP side, Democrats will seek to portray the former Sen. Rand Paul endorser as out of the mainstream. Amazingly, Sullivan is probably the slight front-runner with less than three months to go.
NJ-03: Tom MacArthur (R) - South central: Burlington, Toms River
Toss Up. By the numbers, Republicans should have the edge here: this retiree-heavy seat voted for President Trump 51 percent to 45 percent, and MacArthur took 59 percent in 2016. But a new Monmouth University poll shows MacArthur leading Democratic nominee Andy Kim just 41 percent to 40 percent, more than a month after MacArthur launched his first general election ads.
The wealthy insurance executive's greatest exposure is his voting record: he was one of the architects of last year's failed GOP healthcare bill. He was also the only member of New Jersey's delegation to vote for the GOP's tax cut package, despite a reduction of the SALT exemption that could impact New Jersey especially hard. Kim, who has already raised $2 million, will pound those votes over and over again.
MacArthur's path to survival will involve spending personal money to attack Kim, a young former aide to Gen. David Petraeus and ISIS adviser in the Obama White House. Kim grew up in the district but only recently moved back home to run - and his resume opens him up to charges of elitism. Two weeks ago, MacArthur launched an ad calling Kim a "tax cheat" over a $72,000 tax break on his DC condo.
MacArthur hasn't faced an opponent nearly as well-funded as Kim in his last two races and has never had to run at a time Republicans control everything in DC. Kim will carry his Burlington County base, but MacArthur is counting on Ocean County's GOP retirees to pull him through. If Republicans lose this race, it's possible they could be reduced to one of the state's 12 seats.
NJ-07: Leonard Lance (R) - North central: Flemington, Bridgewater, Summit
Toss Up. Lance, a throwback to northeastern GOP moderates of yesteryear, has typically faced his biggest challenges in primaries. But after the 7th CD voted for Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 48 percent, his main 2018 concern will be the general. Lance hasn't shied away from town halls and voted against the health care bill and final GOP tax bill, but Democrats will still seek to tie him to the larger Republican agenda.
In June, Democrats nominated Tom Malinowski, a Polish-born former Rhodes Scholar who just moved into the district from Princeton. The former Washington director of Human Rights Watch served as Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights under President Obama. His story of "blowing the whistle" on Russian election interference in the final days of the Obama administration has raised $2.3 million to Lance's $1.5 million.
Republicans will call Malinowski a "Princeton elitist" who espouses far-left foreign policy positions. They're also encouraged that GOP gubernatorial nominee Kim Guadagno carried the 7th CD last November and that ethically tarnished Sen. Bob Menendez tops Democrats' ticket. But white-collar central New Jersey is now questioning its allegiance to the GOP in the era of Trump, and private polls suggest a Toss Up.
NJ-11: OPEN (Frelinghuysen) (R) - North central: most of Morris County
Lean Democratic. Morris County used to be the GOP bedrock of the state, but in 2016 the heavily white-collar 11th CD gave President Trump just 49 percent. In 2017, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy narrowly won it. Under siege from both the Freedom Caucus and Democrats, Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen is retiring after just one term as Appropriations chair. And incredibly, a Democrat is now the favorite to take his seat.
Former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor Mikie Sherrill dominated the Democratic primary with 78 percent of the vote. The first-time candidate had a staggering $2.9 million on hand in June. On the GOP side, five-term state Assemblyman Jay Webber beat three opponents with 40 percent, an underwhelming share for a former state party chair who is known as a stalwart social conservative. He had just $171,000 on hand.
Sherrill is poised to take advantage of the rapid shift of the area away from Republicans. Her resume is difficult for Republicans to attack, and she'll try to tie Webber to the GOP tax plan that altered the SALT deduction in this high property tax district. Webber says it helped voters on the income side and will link Sherrill to ticket-leading Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, who was severely admonished by the Senate Ethics Committee.
A late June Monmouth University poll found Sherrill leading Webber 40 percent to 38 percent. But that's before Sherrill has had a chance to exert her considerable financial advantage. Many corporate-minded donors have already begun to treat her as the incumbent.
NM-02: OPEN (Pearce) (R) - Southern half: Las Cruces, Roswell, Hobbs
Lean Republican. This rural southern New Mexico seat is the state's most GOP-friendly: it voted for President Trump 50 percent to 40 percent in 2016. But it's not uncharted territory for Democrats: in 2008, when GOP Rep. Steve Pearce ran for Senate, a conservative Democratic oil and gas businessman won it for a term. Now that Pearce is leaving again to run for governor, a year like 2018 could be ripe for the right kind of Democrat.
Democrats believe they have a star in charismatic Las Cruces water rights attorney Xochitl Torres Small. Torres Small, 33, grew up in Las Cruces, graduated from Georgetown and UNM Law School, and became Sen. Tom Udall's regional point person. She's well-connected with Las Cruces's liberal activists but owns guns and will talk about her enthusiasm for hunting and field dressing oryx on the White Sands Missile Range.
Torres Small's real opportunity lies in exploiting GOP divisions. Freedom Caucus-backed state Rep. Yvette Herrell won the June GOP primary with 49 percent to 32 percent for former state GOP chair Monty Newman. A self-styled "Trump conservative," Herrell has long been at odds with moderate GOP Gov. Susana Martinez, who questioned after the primary whether Herrell could "represent New Mexico in a fair and reasonable way."
Before the primary, the AP reported that Herrell failed to disclose $440,000 in income from properties she rented to state agencies on ethics disclosures, an issue Democrats will surely highlight in the general. Herrell backers will try to caricature Torres Small as a liberal, Georgetown-educated lawyer, but Herrell may need help from outside groups: she ended June with $100,000 on hand to Torres Small's $495,000.
In the end, Torres Small's biggest challenge could be energizing Hispanic voters. The 2nd CD is 53 percent Hispanic by population, but Hispanic turnout typically plummets in midterms. In Torres Small's favor, Trump is unpopular nationally and 1st CD Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham is running for governor. But southern New Mexico politics remains highly polarized along ethnic lines, and Herrell will still be difficult to beat.
NY-19: John Faso (R) - Northern Hudson Valley: Kingston, the Catskills
Toss Up. Despite Faso's long tenure in Upstate politics - he served in the state Assembly for 15 years and was the GOP's nominee for governor in 2006 - he's one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the House today. In 2016, he captured this Hudson River Valley seat 54 percent to 46 percent over liberal law professor Zephyr Teachout while President Trump carried it 50 percent to 44 percent.
Now, he's slightly behind in most private polls to Democratic attorney and former Rhodes Scholar Antonio Delgado, who won the crowded June primary with 22 percent. Delgado earns high marks for charisma, but sports liabilities too. He grew up outside the 19th CD in Schenectady, spent time as an aspiring rapper in Los Angeles, and until recently was a Manhattan bankruptcy lawyer who lived in Montclair, New Jersey.
Delgado believes his emergence from humble roots to Harvard Law school and will resonate with voters. But Republicans will try to paint Delgado as an elitist carpetbagger who is way too far left for this working-class seat, much as they successfully lampooned Teachout last cycle. And, Faso has already criticized some of Delgado's more provocative social justice-oriented rap lyrics as "offensive."
The problem for Faso is that he may have a hard time negatively defining Delgado in a district that's partially covered by the expensive New York City media market, considering Delgado had outraised the incumbent $2.7 million to $2.3 million as of June. And, Democrats will hammer Faso over his vote for the GOP healthcare bill (though he voted against the tax bill). Delgado's ahead, but it's far from over.
NY-22: Claudia Tenney (R) - Central Up.state: Utica, Binghamton
Toss Up. In most competitive seats, President Trump is a drag on incumbent Republicans. In Tenney's case, she's the reason this race is a Toss Up. This Upstate New York district voted for Trump 54 percent to 39 percent, but the socially conservative Tenney prevailed by just 47 percent to 41 percent in part because her past primaries against moderate GOP Rep. Richard Hanna divided local Republicans.
Now, most private polls show her trailing 39-year-old Utica Democratic Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi, who could make inroads with working-class Catholics who voted for Trump. The polarizing Tenney made news in February when she asserted that "many" mass shooters are Democrats. And at the end of June, Brindisi led the freshman incumbent $1.4 million to $1 million in cash on hand.
Republicans believe they have a long list of potent attacks on Brindisi, including his push for a controversial hospital location and tax votes in Albany. They'll also seek to link Brindisi to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is unpopular Upstate. This is a rare case where Trump could help lift a GOP incumbent, and last week Trump visited Utica to hold a fundraiser for Tenney. It's in the Toss Up column.
NC-02: George Holding (R) - Raleigh suburbs, Harnett County
Lean Republican. Holding rose to prominence in GOP circles as the Bush-appointed federal prosecutor who waged the case against John Edwards, and he's benefited from favorably-drawn GOP maps. But in the past week, he's been telling donors that his latest poll shows him trailing Democratic former state Rep. Linda Coleman by three points, despite President Trump carrying the seat 54 percent to 42 percent in 2016.
It could be that Holding is bluffing to pad his coffers: he led Coleman by just $253,000 to $157,000 at the end of June. But it's also plausible that Democrats enjoy an enthusiasm advantage in this district, which combines heavily Republican rural counties with professional Wake County suburbs of Raleigh and the Research Triangle. DC Democrats had initially written off this seat when their favored candidate, self-funding tech executive, lost the May primary to Coleman.
Holding, whose family owns the parent company of First Citizens Bank, has taken every major GOP vote and has never had a competitive general election before. But in 2016, he benefited from a Super PAC set up by wealthy backers to keep his seat in 2016 when fellow GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers was drawn into the same district. Without a competitive statewide contest to motivate GOP voters, he may need their help again.
NC-09: OPEN (Pittenger) (R) - Southwest: Charlotte suburbs, parts of Fayetteville
Toss Up. Evangelical minister Mark Harris unseated Rep. Robert Pittenger 49 percent to 46 in the May 8 GOP primary. The former senior pastor of First Baptist Charlotte had come within a point of beating Pittenger in 2016, and this year urged voters to "drain the swamp" by tossing out a "career politician" whose real estate business had been under FBI investigation. But now, Harris's main obstacle to the House is a serious Democrat.
The 9th CD was dramatically redrawn in 2016, which helped diminish Pittenger's incumbency advantage. Under the new lines, it stretches from the Charlotte suburbs to parts of Fayetteville and President Trump carried it 54 percent to 42 percent. But it's got enough ancestrally Democratic rural counties that Iraq veteran Dan McCready, who was recruited by fellow Marine Seth Moulton, has a plausible path to victory.
McCready grew up in Charlotte and joined the Marines after 9/11. After leaving the military, he earned an MBA from Harvard, became a management consultant and started a solar energy company that installed solar farms throughout the state. Republicans will portray McCready as an elitist who profited from President Obama's "taxpayer funded solar sham," but he didn't have a primary and banked $1.8 million at the end of June.
Republicans now insist they're better off with Harris, a charismatic movement conservative, than the staid politician Pittenger. Harris is well-connected from his days as president of the Baptist State Convention and led the fight for a traditional marriage amendment in 2012. But whereas Pittenger was personally wealthy, Harris emerged from the primary with just $295,000 on hand at the end of June.
Democrats are already attacking Harris over a 2013 sermon in which he appeared to question whether it was healthy for women to make careers the top priority in their lives, in order to drive a wedge between suburban independents and the GOP base. But the biggest problem for Republicans is McCready's $1.8 million to $295,000 cash edge, which means Harris may not be able to neutralize those attacks.
The fundamentals of the district ought to give Harris an advantage, but it looks like GOP outside groups will need to come to his rescue.
NC-13: Ted Budd (R) - West central: parts of Greensboro, Statesville
Lean Republican. This matchup may be the biggest culture clash in the country: Budd is a gun store owner and first-term Freedom Caucus member who homeschools his children in rural Davie County. Wealthy Democratic philanthropist Kathy Manning was the chief fundraiser for Greensboro's $78 million performing arts center scheduled to open next year. If ever there was a race that's "all about that base," this is it.
Budd remains relatively unknown and undefined after winning this seat in 2016 with just 20 percent of the vote in the crowded GOP primary and some help from the Club for Growth. Now, Budd's in for a tricky reelection race. Even though this seat voted for President Trump 53 percent to 44 percent, Greensboro Democrats may be energized and there aren't compelling statewide races to turn out rural GOP voters.
Manning has outraised Budd $1.9 million to $1.2 million and has begun airing an ad touting her opposition to Nancy Pelosi for speaker in an effort to pre-empt attacks on her as a liberal elitist. But her extensive list of political donations over the years should provide fodder for Budd and Republicans. The fundamentals of the district favor Budd, but he'll likely need a bailout from GOP outside groups.
OH-01: Steve Chabot (R) - Southwest corner: Cincinnati, Warren County
Toss Up. Chabot is one of just five Republicans from the epic class of 1994 still serving in the House today, but he's in jeopardy. Democrats nominated a star candidate in Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval. The 35-year-old son of Tibetan and Indian immigrants was just elected to his job in 2016, but he's a charismatic speaker and presents a stark contrast to the 65-year-old socially conservative incumbent.
Chabot has fallen victim to a wave before. In 2008, he lost to Democrat Steve Driehaus amid a surge of African-American turnout for Barack Obama, only to reclaim it in 2010. In 2011, Republicans shored up this Cincinnati seat by adding heavily Republican suburbs in Warren County. In 2016, President Trump won here 51 percent to 45 percent. But that was still the smallest margin of any GOP-held seat in the state.
Pureval grew up near Dayton and went to The Ohio State University, where he was elected student body president. He graduated from Cincinnati Law, served as an assistant federal prosecutor and worked for Procter & Gamble. In 2016, he unseated an incumbent Republican for his county office with 52 percent and in January, Pureval and his wife moved a few miles into the 1st CD to run for Congress.
While some local Democrats compare Pureval to an early Obama, one Republican strategist describes Chabot as "a fossil" who's past his political prime. Pureval, who has outraised Chabot $1.5 million to $760,000 this cycle, says he won't vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker. Meanwhile, Democrats will attack Chabot as a career politician who votes a straight party line, including for the GOP's healthcare bill.
Republicans will tag Pureval as a young man in a hurry who barely started his county job before launching his congressional bid. But Pureval's biggest obstacle is probably the heavily gerrymandered nature of this seat: it's about seven points more Republican than Hamilton County as a whole, and the African-American share of the 1st CD's vote is typically lower in midterms. This race joins the Toss Up column.
OH-12: VACANT (Tiberi) (R) - Central: Columbus north suburbs, Mansfield
Lean Republican. At this writing, state Sen. Troy Balderson holds a 1,754 vote lead over Democrat Danny O'Connor with 8,483 ballots (including 5,048 mail-in absentees and 3,435 provisionals) outstanding. But not all of those ballots will be returned or ruled valid, and O'Connor would have to win them by a much larger margin than other mail-in absentees and Election Day votes to put a serious dent in Balderson's margin.
If O'Connor couldn't win this race in a low-turnout August special, it's difficult to see how he would beat Balderson in the fall. Not only will Balderson be the incumbent, but O'Connor won't have the national spotlight to himself to raise money. Republicans used a late interview in which O'Connor waffled on whether he'd vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker against the 31-year-old Franklin County Recorder. As long as he holds on, Balderson is the favorite in the fall.
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