GOP Rep. Gary Miller's decision to retire in California's San Bernardino-based 31st District is not terribly surprising. Sitting in the most Democratic district of any Republican in the country (D+5 in our Partisan Voter Index), he was already by far the most vulnerable GOP incumbent of the cycle. His retirement doesn't change our Lean Democratic rating of the race.Miller's exit deprives the GOP of an incumbent with self-funding capability and strong support from an outside ally, the National Association of Realtors PAC. But Democrats still can't consider this open seat race a slam dunk.Without Miller in the race, there has been some speculation that two of the cadre of three serious Democratic contenders - Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, former Rep. Joe Baca, and attorney Eloise Gomez Reyes, could emerge from the June primary to face each other in the November general, ensuring a Democratic takeover. But we view this scenario as quite unlikely.In 2012, Miller and GOP state Sen. Bob Dutton combined to take 51 percent of the total votes in the June all-party primary, while four Democrats split the
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