House Editor David Wasserman writes: After Tuesday's top-two jungle primary, it's been a popular observation that the sky is falling for Democrats in California. And while it's true that Democrats suffered perhaps the biggest single setback of the cycle when Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar failed to make the November ballot against two Republicans in a great Democratic district, don't get carried away: Democrats still have better pickup opportunities than Republicans, particularly in the 3rd CD against GOP Rep. Dan Lungren in Sacramento, in the open 26th CD along the Central Coast, and in the 52nd CD against GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray in San Diego. Overall, Democrats aren't in position to gain the four or five seats they would need from California for a House majority, but they are still on track to net one or two.
Washington's open primary is often a useful indicator of where fall races stand, in part because voting is more universal there. But it's much more dangerous to extrapolate California's low-turnout jungle primary as a predictor of what we can expect in the fall. Republicans
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.